Ethereum Futures and Spot Prices Show Near-Zero Premium Post-Merge

Key Market Shifts After Ethereum's Merge

Following Ethereum's successful transition to Proof-of-Stake (the Merge), derivatives markets have shown significant stabilization. According to Skew analytics:

• Premium contraction: The futures-spot price gap narrowed from ~$20 to nearly $0
• Deribit data: 1-month ETH futures' annualized rolling discount decreased from 17.66% pre-Merge to 0.3%
• Exchange alignment: Major platforms including Kraken, OKX, and CME saw futures discounts substantially shrink

Institutional Perspectives

Luuk Strijers, Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer, noted:

"The $20 spot-futures差价 (spread) effectively priced ETHPOW's potential value. This negative basis (现货溢价) has now reduced to approximately 30 cents."

Market Implications

Three-month futures on leading exchanges like Binance now trade:

• At parity with spot prices
• With minor premiums in some cases

This convergence suggests:

1. Reduced market uncertainty post-Merge
2. Stronger price discovery mechanisms
3. Maturing derivatives liquidity

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did futures-spot spreads collapse after the Merge?
A: Elimination of PoW chain uncertainty removed the need for hedging premiums, allowing prices to converge.

Q: How does this affect ETH traders?
A: Arbitrage opportunities have diminished, but market efficiency improvements benefit long-term investors.

Q: Will ETH derivatives remain stable?
A: While short-term stabilization is evident, macroeconomic factors and staking yields may introduce new volatility drivers.

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Analytical Insights

The data reveals:

This transition marks a maturation milestone for Ethereum's financial ecosystem, with derivatives markets now reflecting:

• Improved price efficiency
• Lower structural arbitrage
• Institutional-grade pricing mechanisms

Note: All trading involves risk. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.