February 26, 2025
Last Friday, major global exchange Bybit suffered a hack involving $1.4 billion worth of ETH, triggering a broad market sell-off. On Monday, US stocks began to tumble across the board, while US bonds were bought up—signaling the start of a classic risk-off market phase. BTC, which had been consolidating within a $90,000–$110,000 range near its peak, finally broke downward.
Over the past four months, BTC’s range-bound trading near highs had shown resilience, with sharp minor rebounds occurring whenever prices neared $90,000. However, the recent breach suggests weakening buying momentum.
Bitcoin ETF spot sales have also increased, likely contributing to downward pressure. This month is expected to conclude as a net selling period.
Key Factors Driving the Sell-Off
US Stocks and Macro Concerns
- Upcoming tariff negotiations with Canada and Mexico appear stalled, possibly fueling stock market volatility.
- The risk-off sentiment has now spilled into BTC, breaking its recent decoupling from altcoins.
Bitcoin’s Strategic Reserve Budget
- Speculation mounts that Bitcoin’s reserve allocation may diverge sharply from market expectations, prompting institutional selling.
Dollar-Yen Depreciation
- The USD/JPY rate has fallen from 156–158 yen at the start of the year to ~148 yen, with further declines toward 140 yen possible. This amplifies JPY-denominated BTC’s downside.
Technical Analysis
BTC/JPY Daily Chart
- SMA200 (Orange): Critical support at ¥12.4–12.5 million (~$82,000). A 6–7% drop is anticipated before a potential rebound.
- Breakdown Confirmed: BTC has decisively exited its parallel channel and head-and-shoulders formation.
ETH/JPY 4-Hour Chart
- Resistance at ¥380,000 is a key level for any rebound. MACD consolidation hints at delayed upward momentum post-BTC.
SOL/JPY
- Weakness persists despite ETH’s hack, possibly due to SOL-based DEXs being used for fund laundering.
- SMA30 (Red) suggests shallow pullback opportunities around ¥25,000.
Strategic Takeaways
- Short-Term: Focus on selling into rebounds, particularly in BTC and ETH.
- Long-Term Buying Zones: Wait for deeper dips near SMA200 (~¥12.4M for BTC).
- Monitor: US equities and regulatory developments affecting SOL’s DEX ecosystem.
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FAQ
Q: Why is BTC falling with US stocks?
A: A risk-off shift is driving capital into bonds and out of risk assets like stocks and crypto.
Q: When might BTC rebound?
A: Watch the SMA200 (~¥12.4M). Historically, this level triggers buying.
Q: Is SOL’s decline tied to ETH’s hack?
A: Indirectly—SOL’s DEXs may have been used to launder stolen ETH, spurring sell-offs.
Q: How does USD/JPY affect BTC/JPY?
A: A weaker dollar inflates JPY-denominated losses, adding ~10% extra downside.
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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. Conduct your own research before making investment decisions.