Bitcoin (BTC) cycles persist as halving events continue influencing BTC price, miner behavior, and investor psychology. A renowned analyst recently updated a spiral chart that visually encapsulates the repeating 4-year cycle phases, reinforcing the fractal nature of Bitcoin's market movements.
The Three Phases of Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
Analyst @therationalroot updated his Bitcoin spiral chart, summarizing the fractal structure:
"The 4-year cycle is precise! Each cycle comprises 3 distinct phases."
These phases align with Bitcoin's halving events, occurring roughly every four years. The three recurring phases are:
Mature Bull Market (~1 year)
- Triggered by the halving event.
- Ends with a new all-time high (ATH), sometimes forming a double top (e.g., 2013, 2021) or single top (e.g., 2017).
- Represents the first quarter of the spiral chart (top right).
Bear Market (~1 year)
- Follows the ATH, characterized by an 80% average price drop.
- Features 2–3 capitulation events, eroding investor confidence.
- Occupies the second quarter of the chart.
Early Bull Market (~2 years)
- Begins after the macro bottom, marked by slow accumulation and gradual price rises.
- Dominates the left half of the spiral chart.
👉 Explore Bitcoin's cyclical trends for deeper insights.
Fractal Similarities in Bitcoin Cycles
The spiral chart uses a color gradient (green to red) to reflect investor profitability and loss, based on the STH Cost Basis Z-Score, which tracks short-term holder behavior. Key observations:
- Psychological Stages: The chart maps investor emotions (euphoria, denial, hope) to cycle phases, mirroring traditional market psychology cycles.
- BTC Price Action: Fractals repeat not just in timing but also in investor sentiment, underscoring the predictability of Bitcoin's cycles.
BTC Price Prediction: 2024 Outlook
The analyst projects:
- $40,000 around April 2024 (halving).
- $50,000–$60,000 by late 2024, nearing the ATH of $69,000.
Potential disruptors:
- BlackRock spot ETF approval could accelerate gains.
- Global recession might destabilize cycles, though historical data is scarce.
FAQs
Q: Why do Bitcoin cycles repeat?
A: Halving events reduce supply, driving price surges and subsequent corrections—a pattern reinforced by miner activity and investor psychology.
Q: How accurate are spiral charts?
A: They historically align with BTC’s 4-year phases but exclude outliers like Bitcoin’s genesis cycle (no price data).
Q: Could 2025’s cycle deviate?
A: Yes—external factors like regulatory shifts or macroeconomic crises could alter the fractal pattern.
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Sources: @therationalroot, BuyBitcoinWorldwide, Wall Street Cheat Sheet.