According to Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to achieve unprecedented price milestones in 2025, potentially surpassing $108,000 by June 30. Investors are bullish on the cryptocurrency’s trajectory, anticipating a breakout into price discovery mode within the first half of the year.
Key Price Levels to Watch for Bitcoin in 2025
Bitcoin began 2025 with a strong rebound from the 50-day EMA on daily charts, reclaiming the $96,000 level. After a corrective phase in late 2024, BTC shows signs of renewed upward momentum.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
- Critical Support: Holding above $91,500** is vital; a breakdown could trigger a drop to **$87,000 or lower.
- Resistance Breakthrough: A decisive move above $100,000** may accelerate gains toward **$103,000, paving the way for new all-time highs.
Technical indicators like the MACD hint at a bullish crossover, while trading volumes remain supportive. However, an RSI bearish divergence from November 2024 signals caution.
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Polymarket’s Bitcoin Price Forecasts
Polymarket data suggests a 79% probability that Bitcoin will exceed its prior ATH ($108,230) by June 30, 2025. Key insights:
- Q1 2025 Outlook: 65% chance BTC hits $110,000 by March 31.
- Downside Risks: 80% probability of a pullback to $90,000**, but dips below **$80,000 are deemed unlikely.
- Long-Shot Bets: A 6% probability is assigned to BTC reaching $200,000 by Q1.
Note: Polymarket’s current liquidity is limited (~$75,000), warranting cautious interpretation.
Deribit Options Market Reinforces Bullish Sentiment
Deribit’s options data for June 2025 reveals:
- Open Interest: Heavy call options at **$120,000** ($245M notional value).
- Higher Targets: Significant bets on $130,000–$300,000 strikes.
- Max Pain Price: $85,000, indicating potential short-term volatility.
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FAQs
1. What is Bitcoin’s predicted ATH for 2025?
Polymarket forecasts a 79% chance BTC surpasses $108,230 by June 30.
2. Are there risks of a Bitcoin price drop in 2025?
Yes, Deribit data shows puts targeting $45,000–$55,000, though odds favor higher prices.
3. How reliable are Polymarket’s predictions?
Limited liquidity ($75,000) means forecasts should be cross-verified with other metrics.
4. What’s the significance of the $100,000 resistance?
A breakout above $100,000 could confirm bullish momentum toward new highs.
5. Which indicators suggest Bitcoin’s uptrend?
MACD bullish crossover and sustained trading volumes support upward potential.
6. What’s the "max pain price" for June 2025?
Deribit’s max pain is $85,000, where option sellers would face maximum losses.
Final Notes: While optimism dominates 2025 Bitcoin forecasts, traders should monitor technical levels, derivatives activity, and macroeconomic factors. Polymarket and Deribit data align on a bullish mid-year outlook, but always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).