Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin network continues to demonstrate impressive scale, with a $2.1 trillion market cap** and **$955 billion realized cap, reflecting substantial capital inflows and maturation as a multi-trillion-dollar asset.
- After recovering to $107k**, most Bitcoin investors now hold **unrealized profits** totaling **$1.2 trillion.
- HODLing remains dominant, evidenced by declining profit-taking, falling liveliness metrics, and Long-Term Holder supply reaching a new all-time high.
- Stablecoin purchasing power remains neutral, indicating market equilibrium, while institutional demand for regulated Bitcoin exposure stays robust.
Market Recap
Recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran caused Bitcoin prices to drop from $106K to $99K. However, strong support emerged near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $98.3K**, a critical level distinguishing bullish and bearish conditions. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire stabilized sentiment, fueling a recovery to **$107k.
This resilience suggests bulls remain in control, with underlying momentum favoring further upside.
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Total Profitability
Bitcoin's valuation can be assessed through two frameworks:
- Market Cap: $2.13T (current price × circulating supply)
- Realized Cap: $955B (on-chain pricestamping of each coin)
The $1.2 trillion unrealized profit highlights substantial appreciation but also potential sell-side pressure if sentiment shifts.
Key Metrics:
- MVRV Ratio: Investors hold +125% paper gains, lower than the +180% peak in March 2024.
- Profitability Composite: Indicates positive profitability across all coin age cohorts, supporting bullish sentiment.
Declining Profit-Taking Activity
Despite near-ATH prices, realized profits remain subdued:
- Daily realized profits: $872M**, far below the **$2.8B–$3.2B seen during prior ATH breaks.
- Long-Term Holder supply: 14.7M BTC (new ATH), signaling strong accumulation trends.
- Liveliness metric: Continues downtrend, confirming HODLing dominance.
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Demand Indicators
Stablecoin Purchasing Power
- Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR): Neutral, suggesting balanced demand/supply.
- Exchange Buying Power: Shows potential rotation from stablecoins into BTC/ETH, a tailwind for valuations.
Institutional Inflows
- U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: 7-day average inflows of +$298M, reflecting sustained institutional interest.
FAQ Section
Q: Why is the MVRV Ratio lower than previous peaks?
A: The realized cap (capital inflows) has grown faster than price appreciation, indicating broader investor participation.
Q: What does declining Liveliness mean?
A: It signals reduced spending activity, with HODLing becoming the dominant market behavior.
Q: How significant are institutional ETF inflows?
A: Sustained inflows suggest growing institutional confidence, providing structural support for Bitcoin’s price.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rebound to $107k** restored profitability for most investors, with **$1.2T in unrealized gains. However, low profit-taking activity and record LTH supply underscore a strong HODLing mentality. Improved stablecoin purchasing power and steady institutional demand create a constructive backdrop for continued price stability.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.