Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has surged 27% since early April, forming three consecutive bullish weekly candles.
- The BTC price faces a critical confluence of resistance between $94,000–$96,000.
- A breakout could confirm a long-term trend reversal, while rejection may lead to a pullback.
Bitcoin’s Pivotal Moment: Breaking Down the Resistance
Bitcoin’s recent rally has brought it to a decisive juncture. After hitting lows near $70,000** in early April, BTC has climbed steadily, now testing the **$94,000–$96,000 resistance zone.
Why This Level Matters More Than Ever
Historical Support/Resistance Flip:
- The $94,000 level previously acted as strong support in late 2024. A breakout here could turn it into new support for upward momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement:
- The 0.618 Fib level at $96,500 aligns with this resistance, creating a technical confluence.
Descending Trendline:
- BTC must break the downward trendline from December 2024 highs to invalidate bearish pressure.
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Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals
| Indicator | Current Reading | Implication |
|-----------------|-------------------------|--------------------------------|
| RSI | Slightly above 50 | Neutral momentum |
| MACD | Nearing bullish cross | Potential uptrend confirmation |
Weekly Chart:
- A fourth bullish candle is forming, but the close remains pivotal.
- Hidden bullish divergences on the daily chart add complexity.
Two Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bearish Outlook:
- BTC completes an A-B-C corrective wave (ending diagonal pattern).
- Rejection at $96,000 could trigger a drop to new lows.
Bullish Outlook:
- BTC starts a five-wave uptrend, currently in wave three.
- Symmetrical triangle suggests a local top near $98,000 before continuation.
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FAQs: Addressing Key Concerns
Q: What happens if Bitcoin breaks $96,000?
A: A confirmed breakout could propel BTC toward $100,000+**, with the next major resistance at **$105,000.
Q: Could this rally be a bull trap?
A: Yes—if volume lacks conviction, a false breakout might precede a sharp decline.
Q: How long until a decisive move?
A: The ascending wedge pattern suggests resolution within 1–2 weeks.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s battle at $96,000 is more than a psychological barrier—it’s a make-or-break level for 2025’s trend. Traders should watch for:
- Volume spikes on breakout attempts.
- RSI stability above 60 for bullish confirmation.
- MACD crossover for added momentum signals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk; conduct your own research.
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