Analysts at Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin may be gearing up for its biggest dollar rally yet. According to the bank’s H2 2025 market outlook, Bitcoin could climb to $135,000 by September 30** and reach **$200,000 by the end of December.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, highlighted rising demand from crypto funds and corporate treasuries as major factors. He also cited favorable government policies as a key driver of Bitcoin’s expected growth.
Strong Inflows from ETFs and Treasuries Drive Optimism
Kendrick pointed out that strong inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and growing interest from companies are now driving Bitcoin’s price. In Q2 2025:
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries bought 245,000 BTC.
- Large companies (excluding Strategy Sector firms) purchased 56,000 BTC.
- A Virginia-based firm added 69,000 BTC in the same period.
Kendrick noted that while firms like Strategy have slowed their pace, others are filling the gap. He expects even higher Q3 crypto asset purchases, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price up by **$92,000 in six months**—from $107,644 to $200,000.
👉 Discover how institutional demand is reshaping Bitcoin’s future
Investors Turning to Bitcoin as a Macro Asset
In Q2, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $12.4 billion—more than gold ETFs despite global tensions. Kendrick sees this as proof that investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a store of value. Key observations:
- Hedge funds haven’t increased short positions, signaling long-term confidence.
- Traditional halving cycles may no longer apply due to ETF and corporate demand.
- Long-term holders are likely to sell less in 2025, reducing downward pressure.
Policy Changes That Could Boost Bitcoin
Kendrick identified potential catalysts:
- Fed Chair Announcement: Faster rate cuts under a new Fed Chair could lift Bitcoin.
- Stablecoin Legislation: Bipartisan support for the GENIUS bill may increase retail crypto adoption.
Bitcoin’s price has tracked U.S. bond yields since 2024, and Kendrick expects this trend to continue. Upcoming 13F filings in August could reveal more institutional buys, including from sovereign wealth funds, further driving prices.
👉 Why 2025 could be Bitcoin’s breakout year
FAQ
Q1: What’s driving Bitcoin’s predicted surge to $200K?
A: Institutional demand (ETFs, corporate treasuries), reduced sell pressure from long-term holders, and supportive policies.
Q2: How do Bitcoin ETFs compare to gold ETFs?
A: Bitcoin ETFs attracted $12.4 billion in Q2 2025, surpassing gold ETF inflows despite geopolitical risks.
Q3: Could Fed policy changes impact Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Faster rate cuts under a new Fed Chair could increase Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.
Q4: Is the halving cycle still relevant for Bitcoin’s price?
A: Kendrick argues ETFs and corporate buyers have disrupted traditional halving cycles, creating sustained demand.
Q5: What role do stablecoins play in Bitcoin’s growth?
A: Regulatory clarity (e.g., GENIUS bill) could boost stablecoin adoption, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin by expanding crypto accessibility.
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