Key Highlights
- Altcoin ETFs are now highly likely to gain approval in 2025, with odds for XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana ETFs nearing or exceeding 90%.
- The SEC may classify major altcoins as commodities, paving the way for more ETF applications.
- Analysts suggest approvals could arrive as early as summer 2025, with a final decision expected by October.
Rising Optimism for Altcoin ETFs
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have raised their approval odds for spot altcoin ETFs to 90% or higher, citing positive engagement from the SEC. This follows recent revisions to Solana ETF filings, which included clearer details on redemption processes and staking permissions.
"We now view approval as a matter of when, not if."
— James Seyffart, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst
Approval Odds Breakdown
| Cryptocurrency | Approval Likelihood |
|---------------|--------------------|
| XRP | 95% |
| Dogecoin | 90% |
| Solana | 90% |
| Cardano | 90% |
| SUI | 60% |
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SEC’s Commodity Classification Could Accelerate Approvals
The SEC’s stance on altcoins like Litecoin, XRP, and Solana as commodities (rather than securities) reduces regulatory hurdles. Recent filings for Solana ETFs indicate growing institutional confidence, with firms like Franklin Templeton joining the race.
Spot Crypto ETFs: Current Landscape
- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are already live, attracting billions in investments.
- BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF surpassed $70 billion in assets, becoming one of the fastest-growing funds in U.S. history.
- Ethereum ETFs are progressing slower due to market conditions.
FAQ Section
Q: When will the first altcoin ETFs launch?
A: Analysts predict approvals by summer or fall 2025, with trading expected shortly after.
Q: Why are Solana ETFs gaining traction?
A: The SEC’s request for revised filings signals serious consideration, boosting investor optimism.
Q: Which altcoins have the lowest approval odds?
A: SUI (60%) and Tron (delayed until 2026) face higher regulatory uncertainty.
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What’s Next for Crypto ETFs?
While approvals seem imminent, the full launch of altcoin ETFs may take additional months due to:
- SEC review periods for public comments.
- Operational adjustments by issuers.
- Market readiness for new products.
Analysts remain confident, stating:
"The crypto ETF wave is just beginning."