The cryptocurrency market widely believes Bitcoin (BTC) typically surges in value following the Bitcoin Halving—an event that reduces miners' block rewards by 50%. However, CrediBULL Crypto, a prominent analyst with over 340K followers on X (formerly Twitter), challenges this assumption, predicting a major bear market by 2025 post-2024 halving.
CrediBULL’s Controversial Analysis: Why 2024 Halving Could Mark the Cycle Top
On August 10, 2023, CrediBULL shared a thread arguing that the April/May 2024 halving may signal the bull cycle peak instead of a bullish restart. Key points:
- Extended Bull Cycle: The analyst suggests Bitcoin’s current bull run began in 2018 (BTC at ~$3,000), not 2020, and expects a final parabolic push surpassing the November 2021 ATH (~$69K).
- Historical Patterns: Each consolidation phase (2019, 2020, 2023) lasted longer than the subsequent impulse rally, implying a shorter final surge in 2024.
- Elliot Wave Theory: The 5-wave cycle aligns with CrediBULL’s view, where the current retracement (Wave 4) precedes a final impulse (Wave 5) before a secular bear market.
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Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Breakdown
| Phase | Duration (Days) | Price Range | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidation 1 | 104 | $1,100 | 2019 |
| Impulse 1 | 81 | $9,500 | 2019 |
| Consolidation 2 | 207 | $8,000 | 2020 |
| Impulse 2 | 180 | $52,000 | 2021 |
| Consolidation 3 | 272 | $16,400 | 2023 |
| Impulse 3 (Predicted) | <272 | New ATH? | 2024 |
Current Bitcoin Price and Market Sentiment
As of press time, BTC traded at $29,555, down 1.18% daily. CrediBULL’s outlook hinges on broader factors:
- Macroeconomic trends.
- Crypto market sentiment.
- Adoption and regulatory developments.
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FAQ: Understanding Bitcoin Halving and Market Cycles
Q1: What is Bitcoin Halving?
A: A pre-programmed event every ~4 years reducing miner rewards by 50%, historically triggering bull runs due to supply scarcity.
Q2: Why does CrediBULL expect a bear market post-2024 halving?
A: Extended bull cycles since 2018 suggest exhaustion, with Elliot Wave Theory indicating an impending downturn after Wave 5.
Q3: How accurate are halving-based price predictions?
A: Past halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) led to rallies, but macro conditions and institutional adoption now play larger roles.
Key Takeaways
- The 2024 halving may defy historical trends if CrediBULL’s analysis holds.
- Watch for consolidation duration and Elliot Wave patterns for clues.
- Diversify strategies—halvings are no longer the sole price driver.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk.
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