Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $85,000** for the first time since early April, reigniting hopes for a **$100,000 rally.
- The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) suggests weak buying power, potentially limiting BTC's upside momentum.
- Technical indicators point to consolidation between $78,000 and $90,000 before any significant breakout.
- Major resistance lies near $97,000, where 1.48 million addresses hold unrealized losses.
Stablecoin Buying Power Signals Caution
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), a critical on-chain metric, has climbed to 14.42, indicating reduced stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. This suggests:
- Low buying pressure: Fewer stablecoins are available to fuel BTC purchases.
- Bearish divergence: A high SSR often precedes price stagnation or pullbacks.
👉 Learn how stablecoin dynamics impact crypto markets
Key Resistance Zones Ahead
$96K–$98K: The Next Hurdle
Data from IntoTheBlock reveals a heavy concentration of "out of the money" addresses between $96,155 and $98,719. These holders may sell to break even, creating a strong resistance wall.
Support Levels to Watch
- Strong support: $78,000–$83,000 (backed by high "in the money" addresses).
- Critical breakdown level: A drop below $70,828 could invalidate the bullish structure.
Technical Outlook: Consolidation Before Rally
Daily Chart Breakdown
- Breakthrough: BTC cleared the $83,564 resistance and 200-day EMA, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
- CMF Indicator: The Chaikin Money Flow shows weakening buying pressure, hinting at consolidation.
Projected Scenarios
| Scenario | Price Target | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | $98,629 (0.786 Fib) | Increased buying volume |
| Neutral | $78,208–$90,137 | Sideways CMF trend |
| Bearish | $70,828 | Breakdown below 200-day EMA |
FAQ: Addressing Common BTC Price Questions
1. When could Bitcoin hit $100,000?
While sentiment is bullish, on-chain metrics (SSR) and resistance at $97K suggest the rally may take weeks or months to materialize.
2. What’s the biggest risk to Bitcoin’s price now?
A prolonged high SSR could starve BTC of stablecoin-fueled demand, delaying upward moves.
3. How reliable is the 200-day EMA as support?
Historically strong, but a daily close below it often signals trend reversals.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 remains plausible but faces near-term headwinds. Traders should watch:
- SSR trends for stablecoin liquidity shifts.
- $97K resistance for breakout confirmation.
- 200-day EMA as a momentum gauge.
👉 Explore advanced BTC trading strategies
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always conduct independent research before investing.
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