The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 marked a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry. Since then, a wave of ETF applications has emerged, covering everything from major altcoins to niche cryptocurrencies. This article examines which crypto ETFs are currently under consideration, their likelihood of approval, and how they might impact market dynamics.
SOL ETF: 99% Approval Probability
Key Developments:
- REX-Osprey SOL+ Staking ETF: Announced on June 28, this ETF would track Solana's performance while generating yield through on-chain staking—potentially the first staked crypto ETF in the U.S.
- Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF: Filed on June 26, this proposal involves collaboration between Invesco and Galaxy Digital, with Coinbase Custody serving as the SOL custodian.
- Grayscale Solana Trust: The SEC began reviewing its 19b-4 form on February 12, with a potential approval deadline of October 10, 2025, based on Bitcoin ETF precedents.
Market Sentiment: Polymarket assigns a 99% probability of approval in 2025, reflecting strong institutional confidence in SOL's regulatory path.
👉 Discover how Solana ETFs could reshape staking economics
XRP ETF: 85% Approval Probability
Global Milestones:
- Brazil’s XRPH11: Launched in April 2024 as the first XRP spot ETF, tracking Nasdaq’s XRP Reference Price Index.
- Purpose XRP ETF (XRPP): North America’s inaugural XRP spot ETF began trading on the TSX in June 2024.
U.S. Progress:
- ProShares’ XRP futures ETFs became effective in January 2025.
- Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree have pending spot ETF applications, with analysts noting Ripple’s settled litigation with the SEC as a positive catalyst.
Forecast: An 85% approval chance per Polymarket, bolstered by growing global adoption.
Emerging Contenders: BNB, SUI, and More
BNB ETF
- Status: VanEck submitted an S-1 filing in May 2025, though approval odds remain speculative amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny of Binance.
SUI ETF (60% Probability)
- 21Shares’ Application: Filed in May 2025, aims to provide compliant exposure to Sui’s native token via Nasdaq listing.
- European Precedent: SUI ETPs already trade on Euronext, with significant 2025 inflows.
LTC ETF (82% Probability)
- Grayscale and Canary Capital’s applications face SEC delays, but Litecoin’s established use case supports optimism.
High-Probability Candidates (90% Forecasted Approval)
- DOT, AVAX, ADA, HBAR: Each has active filings, with analysts citing their robust ecosystems and institutional backing as advantages.
Market Implications: Altcoin Season Ahead?
Key Drivers:
- Investor Anticipation: ETF applications often trigger pre-approval buying surges. SOL’s price rallied 40% after the REX Shares announcement.
- Liquidity Boost: Approved ETFs funnel institutional capital, enhancing market depth. Bitcoin ETFs added $30B AUM within six months of launch.
- Regulatory Snowball Effect: SEC approval for one altcoin ETF could accelerate others’, potentially creating an "altcoin ETF summer."
Analyst Views:
- Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg): "Solana is the bellwether for altcoin ETF momentum."
- Michaël van de Poppe: "The coming altcoin cycle may dwarf previous bull markets due to pent-up demand post-bear market."
FAQs
Q: How soon could the first altcoin ETF launch?
A: SOL and XRP ETFs are frontrunners, with possible 2025 Q4 approvals if SEC follows Bitcoin ETF timelines.
Q: Do crypto ETFs benefit long-term holders?
A: Yes—ETFs stabilize prices via institutional demand and lend legitimacy, attracting more conservative capital.
Q: Which altcoins face the toughest regulatory hurdles?
A: Memecoins like DOGE (75% approval chance) and newer tokens (e.g., PENGU at 50%) have higher barriers due to volatility concerns.
👉 Explore altcoin investment strategies ahead of ETF approvals
Conclusion
The 2025 crypto ETF landscape promises unprecedented access to altcoins, with SOL and XRP leading a pack that could include DOT, AVAX, and ADA. While approval timelines remain uncertain, the combination of institutional demand and regulatory progress suggests a transformative year for crypto markets. Investors should monitor SEC comments and global precedents to anticipate the next wave of ETF-driven rallies.