Introduction
2025 has proven to be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, marked by significant price volatility after surpassing the $100,000 milestone. This article delves into key on-chain metrics and macro indicators to assess whether Bitcoin's bull run remains intact or if a deeper correction looms ahead.
Key On-Chain Metrics Explained
1. MVRV-Z Score: Bullish or Bearish?
The MVRV-Z Score compares market value to realized value, serving as a long-term valuation metric. Recent trends show:
- Peaked at 3.36 during the rally
- Dropped to 1.43 after Bitcoin fell from $100K+ to $75K
Historical Context: Similar drops in 2017 and 2021 preceded recoveries, suggesting this may be a healthy correction rather than a cycle end.
👉 Learn more about MVRV-Z Score dynamics
2. VDD Multiple: Tracking "Smart Money"
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple tracks Bitcoin movement speed, weighted by hold duration. Current observations:
- In the "green zone" (low levels), mirroring accumulation phases
- Indicates long-term holders anticipate higher prices post-profit-taking
3. Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart
This chart segments capital flows by coin age, revealing:
- New holders (red band): FOMO-driven buying peaked at $106K
- 1-2 year holders (blue band): Now accumulating—a bullish divergence
Market Cycle Phases: Where Are We Now?
Bitcoin cycles historically unfold in three stages:
| Stage | Duration | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Market | 13-14 months | Deep corrections (70-90%) |
| Recovery | 23-26 months | Reclaiming previous highs |
| Bull Run | 9-11 months | Parabolic post-breakout growth |
2025 Outlook: If recovery parallels past cycles, the bull run peak could arrive by September 2025.
Macro Risks to Watch
Despite positive on-chain signals, external factors persist:
- Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation remains high
- Global recession fears may suppress short-term gains
Conclusion and FAQs
Summary
- On-chain data suggests cycle-consistent behavior
- Macro uncertainties warrant caution
- Slower 2025 cycle retains historical structure
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: Is Bitcoin's bull run over after the $100K drop?
A: Metrics like MVRV-Z indicate this is a typical mid-cycle correction, not an endpoint.
Q2: How does VDD indicate accumulation?
A: Low VDD multiples signal long-term holders are buying, not selling.
Q3: When might the next peak arrive?
A: Projections suggest Q3–Q4 2025 if macro conditions stabilize.
👉 Explore advanced Bitcoin cycle strategies
Disclaimer: This analysis represents market observations, not investment advice.