Market Overview and Key Levels
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Current Price: $79,000 (short-term pivot level)
Support Zones:
- Immediate: $78,000–$77,000 (high liquidity area)
- Secondary: $76,000–$73,000 (panic sell target if broken)
Resistance Zones:
- $80,000–$82,000 (MA7 and psychological barrier)
Ethereum (ETH)
- Current Price: $1,550 (upper range of $1,500–$1,550 consolidation)
Support Zones:
- $1,500 (critical hold level)
- $1,400 (whale accumulation zone)
Resistance Zones:
- $1,580–$1,600 (previous support turned resistance)
Trading Strategies
1. Priority: Trend-Following Shorts
BTC Entry:
- Ideal: Rejection at $80,000–$81,000 or breakdown below $78,000.
- Stop-loss: $82,100 (above resistance).
- Targets: $76,000 → $73,000.
ETH Entry:
- Ideal: Rejection at $1,580–$1,600 with RSI >70 on 4H chart.
- Stop-loss: $1,620.
- Targets: $1,500 → $1,450.
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2. Breakout Fade (High Caution)
- BTC: Sell-stop below $78,000, target $76,000.
- ETH: Sell-stop below $1,500, target $1,450.
3. Counter-Trend Longs (High Risk)
- BTC: Buy dip at $78,000 with reversal signals (e.g., hammer candle).
- ETH: Buy dip at $1,500–$1,520, stop-loss $1,480.
Risk Management
Event Risks:
- April 10 U.S. CPI data release (expect volatility).
- Geopolitical policy shifts (e.g., trade tariffs).
Position Sizing:
- Max 3% per trade, 6% total exposure.
- Stop-loss: 2–3% account risk.
FAQs
Q: Why prioritize shorting over longing?
A: BTC and ETH show weak momentum below key resistances, with higher-probability breakdown targets.
Q: When to exit shorts?
A: Partial profits at first targets; trail stops for extended moves.
Q: Is counter-trend trading viable?
A: Only for experienced traders with tight risk controls.
Key Takeaways
- BTC: Watch $78,000—holds = rebound; breaks = $73,000.
- ETH: $1,500 is make-or-break.
- Strict Discipline: Avoid overleveraging pre-CPI.